Is this 2008 again?

Every few weeks someone asks me if this is 2008 again. I understand why.

Metro pending home sales are down 32% year over year, listings rose another 1.3%, and Forsyth County prices have softened roughly 1 to 2% on average. If you only read those three numbers, you would brace for impact too.

But I lived through 2008 in this business, and the thing that made it 2008 is not happening. Two things would have to break first, and neither of them is breaking.

What Would Have to Happen

The first is inventory, and not the kind of inventory we have now. In 2008 almost a quarter of the homes in this country went up for sale. That is the number people forget. It was not a slow drift upward, it was a flood, and it happened fast.

Compare that to today. Yes, our inventory is elevated. Elevated compared to what, though? 2021, 2022 and 2023, which were historic lows. When you zoom all the way in on that graph it looks alarming. Zoom out and you are looking at a market returning to something closer to normal, which is what we needed.

The second is credit, and this is the one I would watch hardest. A big part of why buying stopped in 2008 is that lending stopped. Banks today are well capitalized and they want to lend. If you qualify and you fit the metrics, there is nothing stopping you from getting a loan.

Inventory creeping up from record lows while banks are still writing loans is not a crash. It is a market.

Sellers, Activity is Telling You Everything

Here is the part I spend most of my time on right now, because this is where people are genuinely frustrated.

The market decides what your house is worth. Not you, not me, not what your neighbor got in 2021. People pay what they believe something is worth, and no amount of insisting otherwise moves that number.

So when a seller calls me frustrated, I ask about activity. Activity tells you everything you need to know. If you have been listed for a week or two and the showings are not there, that is not bad luck and it is not the market being unfair to you. It is the price, or it is the condition. Usually price.

And if you are frustrated, there is a good chance the house was overpriced on day one.

What I tell people is to price it competitively at the front, look honestly at what homes in your neighborhood actually sold for recently, and watch the first two weeks like a hawk. If nothing moves, bring the price down. Homes that sit because of a bad pricing decision are exactly the homes that attract lowball offers, which is the opposite of what holding out was supposed to achieve.

If you need to sell right now, get aggressive with the price. That is not pessimism. It is the fastest route to actually being sold.

Some Agents Are Struggling

There is context here that helps explain the noise you are hearing.

Since 2020, this job has been easy. Buyers were beating down doors. If you got your license in 2020 you have never worked in a normal market.

Before that, selling a house meant actually marketing the property and going out to find a buyer, and that took 30 to 60 days on average. That was not a crisis. That was Tuesday.

So when you hear an agent say the bottom is falling out, what they often mean is that the fever pitch of the last five years has ended and the work has come back. Those are very different statements.

Buyers, This is Your Window

While sellers are adjusting, buyers have leverage they have not had in three years.

Last month, 46.2% of home sales included a seller concession. Closing cost credits, repair allowances, rate buydowns. Nearly half. That is not a rumor going around, that is what is closing.

If you are going to ask for something, ask carefully. Most buyers instinctively push for money off the price, and in a higher rate environment that is usually the weaker ask. I wrote about why in Six Moves That Work for Buyers Right Now in North Atlanta, including what the same dollars do when they go toward your rate instead.

The short version is that I would rather get you a monthly payment you are comfortable with than a headline discount you feel good about. Whether rates are high or prices are high, there are still properties that fit real budgets. The job is finding them.

I'm Optimistic

Agents are leaving this business. That is true, and it will keep happening.

For those of us who stay, the value we provide goes up, not down. A market where pricing strategy matters and buyers need someone who understands concessions is a market where good advice is worth something again.

I am also still seeing real strength in pockets of the Southeast, with people continuing to move into Georgia and neighboring states where housing costs less.

Real estate moves in cycles, the same as every other business. The people armed with the best information win in this one.

My team and I are here to help you navigate it. Let's talk.