With recent economic changes and developments sending markets up and down every day, it’s no surprise that potential homebuyers and investors want to know how global trade tensions and tariffs might affect the real estate and mortgage markets.
As a mortgage advisor who works with clients in various financial situations, I’ve been carefully monitoring these developments to help my clients make informed decisions.
Remember that uncertainty is bad for business globally. As tariff discussions drag out, they continue to sow uncertainty, creating a sense of pause and conservative investing.
Here are some insights on what these changes might mean for your homebuying journey.
Table of Contents
How Tariffs Affect Mortgage Rates
The relationship between tariffs and mortgage rates isn’t always straightforward, but it all comes down to perception and confidence in the market.
When there’s uncertainty in the world—whether from trade tensions or other factors—investors often seek safer returns than what’s available in the stock market.
This flight to safety typically benefits the bond market, with bond prices rising as investors look for stability.
Since there’s an inverse relationship between bond prices and interest rates, this would theoretically cause interest rates to decrease.
However, the timing of such shifts is unpredictable. We’ve already seen how sensitive the market can be to tariff news.
When the U.S. announced it would reduce tariffs for countries other than China, we witnessed an extraordinary $4 trillion in liquidity flow into the stock market—perhaps the most our market has ever seen in a single day.
This demonstrates how quickly investment strategies can shift based on trade policy announcements.
Consumer Confidence and Homebuying Decisions
When it comes to real estate markets, consumer confidence plays a crucial role in driving activity.
In fact, I’d say it’s everything.
Think about it – if people don’t feel confident about their position in life or their family’s future, they’re naturally hesitant to make major financial commitments like purchasing a home.
The back-and-forth nature of tariff negotiations creates an environment where consumers may delay making decisions as they wait to see how policies will stabilize.
Despite this uncertainty, it’s worth noting that homeownership remains one of the most reliable paths to building wealth.
Historically, homeowners’ wealth as a percentage is vastly greater than that of individuals who rent.
The largest wealth owners in this country own real estate, and I believe that will still be true 100 years from now.
Understanding the Cost of Waiting
An important factor that I discuss with clients is what I call the “cost of waiting.”
This concept helps illustrate the financial implications of delaying a purchase decision without pushing anyone toward a particular choice.
For example, during the market of 2020-2021, many first-time buyers in their 20s and 30s decided to wait because the market seemed overheated.
While that caution was understandable, the data shows that those who waited ultimately gave up 4% interest rates and now face homes that are approximately 40% more expensive than they were then.
This isn’t to suggest everyone should rush to buy—each situation is unique.
For some clients who can comfortably afford the payment regardless of current rates, moving forward might make financial sense because:
- You can begin building equity immediately.
- Property values have historically appreciated over time.
- Your loan balance naturally decreases as you make payments.
- If rates improve in the future, refinancing remains an option.
Finding Balance: What You Can Actually Control
When it comes to tariffs or any other economic factor beyond our control, I try to offer a grounded perspective to my clients.
Rather than getting caught up in political or economic debates that we can’t influence, I encourage focusing on what you can actually control in your own life.
You can’t determine international trade policies, but you can manage your personal financial decisions, maintain your work ethic, and prepare methodically for homeownership.
This isn’t about taking a “pull yourself up by your bootstraps” approach—it’s about finding your center amidst economic noise.
Everyone’s situation is different, and I work to help clients navigate their unique circumstances.
Some clients are ready to buy now despite uncertainty, while others might benefit from waiting and strengthening their financial position.
My role is to help you understand the implications of either choice.
Looking Forward Beyond Tariffs
The global economy will always have elements of uncertainty. Whether it be tariffs or something else, the housing market has historically shown resilience over time.
What I find particularly interesting is that after periods of economic challenge or reduction in home values, we’ve typically seen remarkable periods of growth—a pattern that has repeated throughout modern economic history.
Conclusion
I want to present options rather than push opinions.
For some, today’s market represents opportunity despite higher rates; for others, waiting might make more sense.
What matters is understanding the potential costs and benefits of each path based on your specific situation:
- If you buy now: You lock in today’s prices and begin building equity immediately, even if rates are higher than ideal. If rates improve later, refinancing remains an option.
- If you wait: You might benefit from potential rate improvements or market adjustments, but you also risk prices continuing to rise while you’re on the sidelines.
This isn’t about predicting what will happen—it’s about helping you make decisions aligned with your financial goals and comfort level.
I’m here to provide analysis that helps you evaluate what makes the most sense for your unique circumstances.
Together, we can navigate these complex waters with a clear-eyed view of both the challenges and opportunities ahead.
If you’re unsure how the tariffs will affect your ability to make a purchase, or you’re looking to make an application, please don’t hesitate to contact me via my details below.
Contact Information:
Adam Buice
Loan Officer NMLS #1619090 MIG NMLS #34391
404-416-6380
[email protected]
www.AdamBuice.com